It’s been a wild couple of days in the markets.
Demand can’t make up its mind.
Price is currently hovering close to ~ $65k per BTC
This is a bounce off the low of ~ $53k over the 4th of July.
It is bewildering how fast sentiment can shift.
Bitcoin is Absorbing Significant Sell-Side Pressure
As you may know, the German government has emptied the Bitcoin treasury originally obtained from seizures.
A very large treasury containing ~ 50,000 coins.
They sold the local bottom at ~ $53k, valuing the sale around $2.5Billion
Looking at the chart above, it is interesting to see how the market actually rebounded during the actual selling.
More sell pressure may be on the horizon with Mt. Gox.
Mt. Gox was a Bitcoin exchange hacked in 2014, losing ~ 850,000 Bitcoins.
Over $9.4 billion worth of Bitcoin is owed to approximately 127,000 Mt. Gox creditors.
This includes some BCash, which we do not care about.
Distribution has already started:
And the price went up.
The real question is if the creditors are OG Bitcoiners? Converting back to fiat looks worse now than it did in 2014.
A couple quick questions:
President Trump was also shot recently. It was a close one:
It seems this will end up being positive for his approval ratings (it was for Reagan when he went through something similar).
The markets have responded positively thus far as Trump has previously taken a pro-Bitcoin stance:
Trump has also confirmed that he is still speaking at the Bitcoin conference.
Simple Mining can confirm we will also be there. Be sure to stop by our booth to win some sats and a miner.
Trump also elected JD Vance as Vice President.
Quick background on JD Vance: He is a former Marine who later earned degrees from Ohio State University and Yale Law School. He also worked as a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley.
There may be some speculation that this was a funding play by Trump.
But this interaction between JD and Jerome last year adds some interesting context:
The discussion talks about how in Appalachia, coal is the main driver of economic production but creates a "resource curse" (Dutch Disease).
Similarly, the USD as the reserve currency gives us buying power but hurts domestic producers (Triffin Dilemma).
D.C. loves the strength of the dollar, but now all we do is incentivize consumption and a fragmented industrial base of "financial engineers and diversity consultants."
Powell’s response to this was that there is some economic theory supporting this, but there's no other candidate for the world reserve currency. It's about the strength of the dollar. “That's the Treasury's matter, not the Fed's.”
Is this a behind-the-scenes look at the manufacturing and imports/exports stance of the Trump administration?
Only time will tell.
Also in the media is this clip of Blackrock CEO Larry Fink promoting Bitcoin:
This is bullish for hyperbitcoinization.
The CEO of the largest asset manager in the world saying nice things about the orange coin will increase adoption.
But Larry is still making his way through the “digital gold” and “smart contracts, Web3, NFT", blockchain” phase.
If you listen to the end, there is a disconnect in his logic about hope and fear.
Bitcoin is not a shelter to appease fear of the Fed and debasement.
Bitcoin is rather hope for global economic sovereignty and fair monetary policy.